McDonald County neighbors who have their wood all stacked and ready to go for the impending cold temperatures might be in luck this winter. Forecasters believe that a weak La Niña weather pattern may result in a mild winter.
U.S. National Weather Service meteorologists believe the weak weather pattern may impact our region in a good way.
The weak La Niña pattern could result in above-average temperatures and below-median precipitation across the southern tier of the United States, forecasters said.
A typical La Niña winter usually results in a colder and wetter scenario for the Northwest and Midwest, while the Southwest to Southeast remains drier than average, according to the U.S. National Weather Service.
All that is a result of the Pacific jet stream moving higher into Alaska and Canada and keeping some dips in the jet stream farther north across the eastern United States.
Weather buff Elizabeth Pogue of Goodman believes that the area may experience a mild winter, depending on those weather forecasts.
The 17-year-old weather enthusiast is actively researching the weather pattern in detail and keeping track of what kind of winter national forecasters are predicting.
"I don't think it will be too bad, but that could change," Pogue said. "If La Niña strengthens, we could see a foot of snow."
Pogue usually watches severe weather during the spring and summer seasons, trying to figure out where and when tornadoes may form. She taps Torcon (tornado condition index) to stay abreast of changing weather scenarios.
For winter conditions, Pogue turns to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) as her primary tool.
One factor which is difficult to determine is the amount of snowfall for the year. "Every year it has been different," Pogue said, adding that a consistent pattern is nonexistent.
Based on national forecasts, however, Pogue thinks the winter will not be a hard, cold one.
"I don't see it being a bad winter," she said.
Should the La Niña pattern strengthen, that will take place anytime from late December through January and into the deeper part of winter, Pogue said.
Pineville resident Paul Rowse thinks this winter may be mild. Rouse recently conducted an experiment with persimmon seeds. The one he opened had a fork in it, which represents a mild winter in folklore.
If the kernel inside the persimmon is fork-shaped, folks can plan on a mild winter with light, powdery snow. If the kernel is spoon-shaped, it is believed that folks should prepare to shovel plenty of snow. If the kernel is knife-shaped, neighbors should expect frigid winds that will "cut" like a blade.
Rowse, who lives on a farm east of Pineville, recently spoke to the Back to Basics group about winter weather predictions.
In addition to speaking about the persimmon seeds, Rowse also shared information about the woolly worm, another tool folks utilize to predict the upcoming winter.
A woolly worm has 13 segments on its body, which represent the 13 weeks of winter. The first six or seven weeks were black, which represent a cold and dreary winter, he said. The middle part was brown, which means mild weather. The last three or four segments were black again, which indicates it could be cold in the last weeks of winter, he said.
Rowse speaks to the group each month and varies his talk about topics such as astronomy, the eclipse and soap making during his segment called, "Home Groan."
He doesn't place much stock in looking at the persimmon seed and woolly worm but finds it fascinating to consider those methods of weather predictions.
"It's interesting to look at it," he said.
He's also researched how the pioneers used to predict weather, looking at some 20 different indicators.
"They had to seriously prepare," he said.
The weight of acorns, as well as watching how farm animals behave, are also other tools they utilized, he said.
Between the persimmon seed, the woolly worm and a predicted weak La Niña pattern, Rowse believes Mother Nature will be fairly kind this winter.
"That's the way it's trended," he said.
The Springfield office of the National Weather Service recently released record temperatures recorded, and it's been decades since the temps dipped really low.
The coldest temperature ever recorded in Missouri occurred in Warsaw on Feb. 13, 1905, with a recorded temperature of -40.
Springfield and Vichy-Warsaw tied for holding the second coldest temperature on record. Both cities a record -29 degree temperature on Feb. 12, 1899.
Joplin recorded the third coldest temperature in the state with a -21 degrees on Feb. 13, 1905. That temperature was tied in West Plains on Feb. 2, 1951.
General News on 12/07/2017